It's Samba vs. Cumbia. Friday, July 4th, in Fortaleza. 4 pm Eastern kickoff time.
Your Mandatory "No love lost between these two teams" Video
Once upon a time, Brazil beat Colombia 9-0. That's the worst loss in Colombian history.
Uniforms
In this battle of Yellow vs. Yellow, Brazil gets the edge due to home-field advantage. The Colombian away red jerseys are nothing to write home about.
Three Burning Questions
1. When did Brazil turn into England?
If you watched any of the Brazil vs. Chile match, you must have noticed that, at some point during the course of the game, Brazil decided to just boot the ball up-field and pray for the best. Considering the quality of their strikers (more on that coming up), this is not a strategy that suits them very well. Brazil is at its best when Neymar and Oscar are dictating play, with overlapping runs by Marcelo and Dani Alves. They need to get back to the basics if they plan on reaching the Semifinals.
2. Jackson or Ibarbo for Colombia?
The only lineup decision that Colombian manager José Pekerman has to make is a tactical one. Does he choose Jackson Martinez and play a 4-4-2 with Teo Gutierrez in a shadow striker position? Or does he select Victor Ibarbo instead and play a 4-2-3-1, with Teo playing the sole striker role? As mentioned above, Colombia should find space behind Brazil's aggressive fullbacks and must be able to exploit it in order to win. If it were up to me, Ibarbo would be the choice.
3. Will fatigue play a role in the heat and humidity of Fortaleza?
Almost all of the Brazilian Starting XI has played 390 minutes: 4 full matches plus 30 minutes of extra time. Luiz Gustavo, Neymar, Oscar, Dani Alves, and Marcelo have all ran more than 40 kms already! On the other hand, none of the Colombian starters have played all 90 minutes in each of the 4 matches. James Rodriguez leads all Colombians with 36 km traveled, yet he didn't play the first half of the match against Japan and was subbed out at the end of the Round of 16 match against Uruguay.
It doesn't seem like it'll be a particularly hot day in Fortaleza (72F), but the humidity should be around 70%. If the match goes to extra time, Colombia should have fresher legs. If you consider Neymar's nagging calf injury, I would be willing to bet that Brazil goes all out to win in 90 minutes.
Brazil will win if...
... either of their completely inept strikers, Fred or Jo, scores. They are both so bad you wonder why they don't just grab somebody off the beach and give him the #9 jersey. I think the current version of Ronaldo, R9, would be an upgrade over Fred.
Colombia will win if...
... the match goes to extra time. As mentioned above, Brazilian players have had to play a lot more than their Colombian counterparts. Jose Pekerman has done an excellent job rotating the squad and all players are close to full fitness. They should be able to grab a late winner by outrunning a very tired Brazilian back four that might get caught in transition.
The Final Score
Brazil 2 - Colombia 1. Brazil wins it after Zapata or Yepes loses a ball trying to play out of the back and Neymar capitalizes. I've been picking against Colombia all tournament and I'm not going to change my strategy now.
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