Waaaaatch oooooout!!! Second of the game.
Monday, August 11, 2014
California Penal League - Week 18 Review
Last update for a couple of weeks because yours truly is getting married. And the future wifey probably won't appreciate it if I spend time writing blog posts about fantasy baseball. Don't worry though, I'll make sure to keep you updated of playoff scenarios, and the like.
Week 18 Recap
We have a new leader, as Dugan has taken over first place. Doug couldn't do much against Jon A., who exploded to the tune of 410 points. The loss drops him to 3rd place, a game behind Dugan and myself. Dugan gets 1st place based on his current advantage in total points.
Despite the loss, Ryan has secured a playoff spot thanks to Ralph's loss. Congrats! Virtually locked in into the #4 seed.
Allen's win, coupled with Kyle's victory and Ralph's loss, means that Kyle and Jon now have a two game lead for the final playoff spots. This battle will be key as one of these two will end up having to face the loser of the three-way battle at the very top. That's a matchup everyone would want to avoid.
Somehow, someway, nobody is eliminated from the playoffs. 4 games separate 5th place from 12th place, with 4 games remaining. Yet....
Mike and Drew showed that they belong in the basement, as they combined for less points this week than Allen scored on his own. Shame on you. Especially Mike. After finishing dead last the past season, he traded all his good players for potential keepers... and managed to finish last again. Terrible managing.
Playoff Outlook
With 4 games left, we can start looking at the teams battling for playoff position, and check to see how who has the toughest road left. I took each team's remaining schedule and assigned points based on current standings. For example, if you play the current #2 seed, that's 11 points to your SoS. If you play the #12 seed, that's 1 point. The larger the number, the tougher your schedule, the worst off you are. Without further ado:
Week 18 Recap
We have a new leader, as Dugan has taken over first place. Doug couldn't do much against Jon A., who exploded to the tune of 410 points. The loss drops him to 3rd place, a game behind Dugan and myself. Dugan gets 1st place based on his current advantage in total points.
Despite the loss, Ryan has secured a playoff spot thanks to Ralph's loss. Congrats! Virtually locked in into the #4 seed.
Allen's win, coupled with Kyle's victory and Ralph's loss, means that Kyle and Jon now have a two game lead for the final playoff spots. This battle will be key as one of these two will end up having to face the loser of the three-way battle at the very top. That's a matchup everyone would want to avoid.
Somehow, someway, nobody is eliminated from the playoffs. 4 games separate 5th place from 12th place, with 4 games remaining. Yet....
Mike and Drew showed that they belong in the basement, as they combined for less points this week than Allen scored on his own. Shame on you. Especially Mike. After finishing dead last the past season, he traded all his good players for potential keepers... and managed to finish last again. Terrible managing.
Playoff Outlook
With 4 games left, we can start looking at the teams battling for playoff position, and check to see how who has the toughest road left. I took each team's remaining schedule and assigned points based on current standings. For example, if you play the current #2 seed, that's 11 points to your SoS. If you play the #12 seed, that's 1 point. The larger the number, the tougher your schedule, the worst off you are. Without further ado:
| Team | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 22 | Total |
| Drew | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 |
| Kyle | 8 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 34 |
| Jon S. | 10 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 29 |
| Dugan | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| Bill | 6 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| Doug | 4 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| Ryan | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| Jon A. | 7 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| Pearse | 11 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 24 |
| Mike | 9 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| Ralph | 5 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 19 |
| Luis | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
The maximum possible rating is 42. The minimum is 10, There are some really interesting things here, but let's focus on the outliers.
1) Ralph has a really good shot at making the playoffs!
Look at that SoS! The second lowest, with 3 easy matchups and 1 really hard one. He should go at least 3-1 and maybe even 4-0 if he can pull off the upset! Compare that with Kyle, who has the second toughest remaining slate, with games against Dugan and Doug to close out the season, as well as a matchup with Jon A. this week. This could get really interesting.
2) If I don't win the regular season, then it'd be a complete choke job.
And I'll change my team name to AbsolutChokeJob, just like that time 2 years ago in the fantasy football league when I started 6-1 and missed the playoffs.
3) Mike, if you finish last, you are truly the worst fantasy player of all time.
Look at poor Drew's schedule. I feel so bad, I'm not even going to make fun of him.
Lucky or Unlucky?
Today's second special feature looks at how lucky or unlucky teams have been. We can do that by looking at their average points scored and average points allowed, and see how does measure up against the rest of the league.
| Team | Pt Diff | O-Rank | D-Rank | Comment |
| Dugan | 1028.84 | 2 | 1 | Lucky! |
| Doug | 886.33 | 1 | 7 | |
| Luis | 572.3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Ryan | 322.5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Kyle | 19.67 | 8 | 2 | Lucky! |
| Bill | -5.65 | 7 | 3 | |
| Jon A. | -66 | 5 | 9 | Little Unlucky! |
| Jon S. | -255.35 | 9 | 6 | |
| Pearse | -430.01 | 10 | 8 | |
| Ralph | -521.48 | 6 | 12 | Very Unlucky! |
| Drew | -720.83 | 11 | 11 | Bad and Unlucky! |
| Mike | -830.32 | 12 | 10 | Plain Bad! |
Now, what we see here has some correlation to the schedule. It should normalize quite a bit by the end of the season, when everyone has played each other twice. We can still draw some conclusions:
- Dugan has allowed the least amount of points, meaning that he has benefited from some bad weeks by opponents.
- Kyle is in a similar situation, having only the 8th most points scored, but sitting in 6th place thanks to some really lucky matchups (like winning with 275 points last week).
- Ralph has been super unlucky, scoring the 6th most amount of points but just get walloped by everybody else.
Week 19 Preview
#1 Dugan vs. #11 Drew: Snowball's chance in hell.
#2 Luis vs. #10 Pearse: Nothing to see here.
#3 Doug vs. #9 Shidler: Have you seen Shide's team? DL United.
#4 Ryan vs. #12 Mike S.: The top 4 playing the bottom 4. Who would've thunk it? But that means that...
#5 Jon A. vs. #6 Kyle: Winner is one huge step closer to the playoffs.
#7 Ralph vs. #8 Bill: Winner stays alive. Loser goes home.
Monday, August 4, 2014
California Penal League - Week 17 Review
After a two-week break due to me being lazy, I'm back recapping some of the most interesting action of a fantasy baseball league in early August. Cut me some slack, don't have a ton to work with here.
Week 17 Recap
We begin at the top, where the top 3 teams won and clinched playoff spots. Congratulations to Doug, Dugan, and yours truly, who have secured a spot in the final 6 with 5 weeks to go. Doug dispatched Soltys effortlessly, Dugan crushed his buddy Jon A., and I won a pillow-fight against Kyle. At 13-4, it looks to be a tight race to the finish. I think I have the advantage in terms of remaining schedule, but I'm also 3rd in points. Doug and Dugan play each other Week 20, presumably for the regular season title.
Trailing not too far behind is Ryan at 12-5, although he's severely lacking in the points category. One more win and he will also clinch a playoff spot, while remaining in contention for one of the coveted bye spots.
The playoff race has two clear front-runners and a bunch of teams chasing after them. Both Jon A. and Kyle are tied for 5th place at 8-9 after losses to the top teams this past week. Trailing behind them is Ralph at 7-10, even though he has 115 more points than Kyle, meaning he would win that tiebreaker. A cluster of 6-11 teams still holds on to playoff hopes: Bill, Jon S. and Drew. These are probably sellers, not buyers.
Bringing up the rear are Pearse and Mike. Mike returns to his familiar 12th spot for the 2nd straight year. No takers for Tulo yet? No one is going to buy a busted car.
Awards
Hitter of the Week - Brett Gardner (AntarcticanAmericans): 48 pts
5 Home Runs! Five! I know most were in Texas, but still. He OWNS Darvish. Three doubles, three singles, and more walks than strikeouts. Insane.
Goat of the Week, Hitter Edition - Carlos Gonzalez (Formerly of AbsolutDomination, now of MVPuig): 1 pt
I'm tired of giving this award to Chris Davis (-0.50 pts) so let's try someone different. Come on up CarGo! 1/15 this week, with only 1 point. I traded him away for Yoenis Cespedes (before the trade to Boston) cause I got tired of his brittleness. What is it about Colorado sluggers (Tulo, Cuddy, CarGo) that makes them so brittle? Either way, enjoy Kyle!
Pitcher of the Week - Greg Holland (Schweddy Balls): 49 pts
Holland picked up 4 saves this week, only allowed 2 baserunners and struckout 6. That's good for the overall lead league in total points for Week 17.
By the way, let's address the issue brought up by Dugan about RP being worthless in this format...
- Did you know that 8 of the top 25 pitchers in total points are closers?
- Did you know that 2 of them actually started off as set-up men? Z. Britton (7 holds) and Melancon (14 holds).
- Did you know that 2 full-time set-up men are in the top 50 in total points for pitchers? Belances (17 holds, 98 K's) and Tony Watson (25 holds).
Bottom line, if we reduce the points / IP by 0.5, then the top 50 are going to be all relievers and a few elite starters. So we need to adjust accordingly.
Goat of the Week, Pitcher Edition - C.J. Wilson (Schweddy Balls): -10.33 pts
Wilson only lasted 1 1/3 innings against the Rays. He got tagged for 6 hits and 6 runs, striking out 2. Picked up the loss. Honorable mention to Adam Wainwright, who got abused by my Brew Crew to the tune of 7 earned in 5 and a third.
Week 18 Preview
#1 Doug vs. #5 Jon A.: Allen probably didn't have a chance before Goldy got hurt. Now, he's gonna get owned.
#2 Dugan vs. #9 Jon S.: The Jons are not going to have a good week. Time to sell, Shide.
#3 Luis vs. #4 Ryan: Matchup of the week. I need this to keep pace with the leaders. Ryan needs the win to clinch a playoff spot and have any hope of finishing in the top 2.
#6 Kyle vs. #12 Mike S.: Golden opportunity for Kyle to take sole possession of 5th and avoid one of the Big 3 in the playoffs.
#7 Ralph vs. #11 Pearse: Ralph could take over one of the playoff spots if a series of results (and points) go his way.
#8 Bill vs. #10 Drew: Pillowfight of the Week!!!! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Have a happy "football is back, even if it's preseason" week!
Week 17 Recap
We begin at the top, where the top 3 teams won and clinched playoff spots. Congratulations to Doug, Dugan, and yours truly, who have secured a spot in the final 6 with 5 weeks to go. Doug dispatched Soltys effortlessly, Dugan crushed his buddy Jon A., and I won a pillow-fight against Kyle. At 13-4, it looks to be a tight race to the finish. I think I have the advantage in terms of remaining schedule, but I'm also 3rd in points. Doug and Dugan play each other Week 20, presumably for the regular season title.
Trailing not too far behind is Ryan at 12-5, although he's severely lacking in the points category. One more win and he will also clinch a playoff spot, while remaining in contention for one of the coveted bye spots.
The playoff race has two clear front-runners and a bunch of teams chasing after them. Both Jon A. and Kyle are tied for 5th place at 8-9 after losses to the top teams this past week. Trailing behind them is Ralph at 7-10, even though he has 115 more points than Kyle, meaning he would win that tiebreaker. A cluster of 6-11 teams still holds on to playoff hopes: Bill, Jon S. and Drew. These are probably sellers, not buyers.
Bringing up the rear are Pearse and Mike. Mike returns to his familiar 12th spot for the 2nd straight year. No takers for Tulo yet? No one is going to buy a busted car.
Awards
Hitter of the Week - Brett Gardner (AntarcticanAmericans): 48 pts
5 Home Runs! Five! I know most were in Texas, but still. He OWNS Darvish. Three doubles, three singles, and more walks than strikeouts. Insane.
Goat of the Week, Hitter Edition - Carlos Gonzalez (Formerly of AbsolutDomination, now of MVPuig): 1 pt
I'm tired of giving this award to Chris Davis (-0.50 pts) so let's try someone different. Come on up CarGo! 1/15 this week, with only 1 point. I traded him away for Yoenis Cespedes (before the trade to Boston) cause I got tired of his brittleness. What is it about Colorado sluggers (Tulo, Cuddy, CarGo) that makes them so brittle? Either way, enjoy Kyle!
Pitcher of the Week - Greg Holland (Schweddy Balls): 49 pts
Holland picked up 4 saves this week, only allowed 2 baserunners and struckout 6. That's good for the overall lead league in total points for Week 17.
By the way, let's address the issue brought up by Dugan about RP being worthless in this format...
- Did you know that 8 of the top 25 pitchers in total points are closers?
- Did you know that 2 of them actually started off as set-up men? Z. Britton (7 holds) and Melancon (14 holds).
- Did you know that 2 full-time set-up men are in the top 50 in total points for pitchers? Belances (17 holds, 98 K's) and Tony Watson (25 holds).
Bottom line, if we reduce the points / IP by 0.5, then the top 50 are going to be all relievers and a few elite starters. So we need to adjust accordingly.
Goat of the Week, Pitcher Edition - C.J. Wilson (Schweddy Balls): -10.33 pts
Wilson only lasted 1 1/3 innings against the Rays. He got tagged for 6 hits and 6 runs, striking out 2. Picked up the loss. Honorable mention to Adam Wainwright, who got abused by my Brew Crew to the tune of 7 earned in 5 and a third.
Week 18 Preview
#1 Doug vs. #5 Jon A.: Allen probably didn't have a chance before Goldy got hurt. Now, he's gonna get owned.
#2 Dugan vs. #9 Jon S.: The Jons are not going to have a good week. Time to sell, Shide.
#3 Luis vs. #4 Ryan: Matchup of the week. I need this to keep pace with the leaders. Ryan needs the win to clinch a playoff spot and have any hope of finishing in the top 2.
#6 Kyle vs. #12 Mike S.: Golden opportunity for Kyle to take sole possession of 5th and avoid one of the Big 3 in the playoffs.
#7 Ralph vs. #11 Pearse: Ralph could take over one of the playoff spots if a series of results (and points) go his way.
#8 Bill vs. #10 Drew: Pillowfight of the Week!!!! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Have a happy "football is back, even if it's preseason" week!
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