Week 18 Recap
We have a new leader, as Dugan has taken over first place. Doug couldn't do much against Jon A., who exploded to the tune of 410 points. The loss drops him to 3rd place, a game behind Dugan and myself. Dugan gets 1st place based on his current advantage in total points.
Despite the loss, Ryan has secured a playoff spot thanks to Ralph's loss. Congrats! Virtually locked in into the #4 seed.
Allen's win, coupled with Kyle's victory and Ralph's loss, means that Kyle and Jon now have a two game lead for the final playoff spots. This battle will be key as one of these two will end up having to face the loser of the three-way battle at the very top. That's a matchup everyone would want to avoid.
Somehow, someway, nobody is eliminated from the playoffs. 4 games separate 5th place from 12th place, with 4 games remaining. Yet....
Mike and Drew showed that they belong in the basement, as they combined for less points this week than Allen scored on his own. Shame on you. Especially Mike. After finishing dead last the past season, he traded all his good players for potential keepers... and managed to finish last again. Terrible managing.
Playoff Outlook
With 4 games left, we can start looking at the teams battling for playoff position, and check to see how who has the toughest road left. I took each team's remaining schedule and assigned points based on current standings. For example, if you play the current #2 seed, that's 11 points to your SoS. If you play the #12 seed, that's 1 point. The larger the number, the tougher your schedule, the worst off you are. Without further ado:
| Team | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 22 | Total |
| Drew | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 |
| Kyle | 8 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 34 |
| Jon S. | 10 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 29 |
| Dugan | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| Bill | 6 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| Doug | 4 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| Ryan | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| Jon A. | 7 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| Pearse | 11 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 24 |
| Mike | 9 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| Ralph | 5 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 19 |
| Luis | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
The maximum possible rating is 42. The minimum is 10, There are some really interesting things here, but let's focus on the outliers.
1) Ralph has a really good shot at making the playoffs!
Look at that SoS! The second lowest, with 3 easy matchups and 1 really hard one. He should go at least 3-1 and maybe even 4-0 if he can pull off the upset! Compare that with Kyle, who has the second toughest remaining slate, with games against Dugan and Doug to close out the season, as well as a matchup with Jon A. this week. This could get really interesting.
2) If I don't win the regular season, then it'd be a complete choke job.
And I'll change my team name to AbsolutChokeJob, just like that time 2 years ago in the fantasy football league when I started 6-1 and missed the playoffs.
3) Mike, if you finish last, you are truly the worst fantasy player of all time.
Look at poor Drew's schedule. I feel so bad, I'm not even going to make fun of him.
Lucky or Unlucky?
Today's second special feature looks at how lucky or unlucky teams have been. We can do that by looking at their average points scored and average points allowed, and see how does measure up against the rest of the league.
| Team | Pt Diff | O-Rank | D-Rank | Comment |
| Dugan | 1028.84 | 2 | 1 | Lucky! |
| Doug | 886.33 | 1 | 7 | |
| Luis | 572.3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Ryan | 322.5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Kyle | 19.67 | 8 | 2 | Lucky! |
| Bill | -5.65 | 7 | 3 | |
| Jon A. | -66 | 5 | 9 | Little Unlucky! |
| Jon S. | -255.35 | 9 | 6 | |
| Pearse | -430.01 | 10 | 8 | |
| Ralph | -521.48 | 6 | 12 | Very Unlucky! |
| Drew | -720.83 | 11 | 11 | Bad and Unlucky! |
| Mike | -830.32 | 12 | 10 | Plain Bad! |
Now, what we see here has some correlation to the schedule. It should normalize quite a bit by the end of the season, when everyone has played each other twice. We can still draw some conclusions:
- Dugan has allowed the least amount of points, meaning that he has benefited from some bad weeks by opponents.
- Kyle is in a similar situation, having only the 8th most points scored, but sitting in 6th place thanks to some really lucky matchups (like winning with 275 points last week).
- Ralph has been super unlucky, scoring the 6th most amount of points but just get walloped by everybody else.
Week 19 Preview
#1 Dugan vs. #11 Drew: Snowball's chance in hell.
#2 Luis vs. #10 Pearse: Nothing to see here.
#3 Doug vs. #9 Shidler: Have you seen Shide's team? DL United.
#4 Ryan vs. #12 Mike S.: The top 4 playing the bottom 4. Who would've thunk it? But that means that...
#5 Jon A. vs. #6 Kyle: Winner is one huge step closer to the playoffs.
#7 Ralph vs. #8 Bill: Winner stays alive. Loser goes home.
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