World Cup 2014 - Round of 16, Day 4

We've had 6 really good matches so far in this Round of 16. The only match where it never felt like the result was in doubt was Colombia - Uruguay. Nigeria gave France a run for its money (as predicted here!) and Algeria hung around till the bitter end against Germany (definitely not as predicted here!). Germany missed too many chances and looked very... un-German-like. But let's move on to today's matches. Here are the predictions for today, July 1st, 2014.

Argentina vs. Switzerland

Is it possible to feel bad for who has been the Best Player in the World for the last 5 years? Messi just can't catch a break. The narrative coming into the tournament was that Messi just didn't play at the same level for his National Team as he did for his club, Barcelona. 1 World Cup goal in his first 8 matches, plus two quarterfinal exits, seemed to back that claim.

Fast forward back to the present: game-winner against Bosnia & Herzegovina, 91st minute winner against Iran, and a brace against Nigeria. But now the narrative has flipped. Argentina has won all those matches by one goal, and haven't played like the world-beaters we were expecting. The media now cries about the team suffering from "Messidependencia": the believe that the team plays worse because they are all looking for Messi at all times instead of focusing on building strong team play.

The Swiss, on the other hand, come into this match after beating Ecuador with a last-second goal, getting shellacked by the French, and destroying an overmatched Honduras. Very soft group, probably even softer than Argentina's. I think they will concede possession to Argentina and try to get them on the counter.

I see a tight game with a late Argentina winner. This trend developing during Argentina matches does not look promising, so a Swiss upset is not unthinkable. The loss of Kun Aguero and the very disappointing performances of Higuain are worrysome, but I think Angel di Maria shines in this one.

Prediction:
Argentina 2 - Switzerland 1

USA vs. Belgium

The Belgians are in a similar boat to Argentina. They topped their group while winning all 3 matches by one goal, coming from behind in a win against Algeria before edging past Russia and South Korea. A lot was and is still expected from this Belgium team. They are young and skillful, but the lack of experience has showed.

This United States team is the polar opposite, vastly outperforming expectations. Uncle Sam has played inspiredly, surviving the group of death with a win against Ghana, a draw against Portugal, and a narrow loss to Germany. The Americans get Jozy Altidore back for this match, which will allow Dempsey to drop back into his preferred attacking midfielder position. Jozy probably can't play all 90 minutes but his presence will be a definite boost.

As every other Round of 16 match in this World Cup so far, I expect a nailbiter that won't be decided until the very end. A potential penalty kick shoot-out featuring Thibault Courtois and Tim Howard is must-watch TV. That's right, I'm predicting a draw, and most importantly:

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!!!!!

Prediction:
USA 1 (4) - Belgium 1 (3)

World Cup 2014 - Round of 16, Day 3

Here are your predictions for today, June 30th, 2014.

France vs. Nigeria

I don't think there's a more physically imposing squad than the Nigerians in this tournament. This is most exemplified by their striker, Emmanuel Emenike. The matchup between him and Mamadou Sakho will be one to watch. However, the draw did not do them any favors as they have to face a French team that put on the most impressive display of football in this World Cup, while racing to a 5-0 lead against the Swiss.

I think this will be a tight game where France prevails, but not without a few scares along the way. This is a Nigerian team that gave Argentina fits, overpowered the Bosnians, yet couldn't solve Iran. A late goal makes the scoreline look better for France, but Nigeria will definitely hang around.

Prediction: 
France 3 - Nigeria 1

(UPDATE: Sakho is out with an injury. Real Madrid's Varane gets the start.)

Germany vs. Algeria

I just mentioned before that I didn't think there was a more physically imposing squad in the tournament than Nigeria. Well, if that's true, then Algeria is not a distant 2nd. We tend to stereotype African teams as fast and powerful. They will try to beat you with their God-given attributes, not with skill. This team plays right into that stereotype. They overpowered South Korea in their group match, gave Belgium all it could handle, and exerted its will against the Russians during the 2nd half of their match.

All of that said, you can't bet against DAS UBER FUßBALL MACHINEN. Too much skill, too much quality, and Germany NEVER loses before the Quarterfinals. They win comfortably, and look for Müller to score again, maybe even a brace. This would be the upset of the tournament if Algeria were to find a way to keep this close.

Prediction: 
Germany 4 - Algeria 0